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Phoenix housing market could rise in 2011

January 27, 2011 by Chris Morrison · Leave a Comment 

Phoenix housing market could rise in 2011 - Arizona State University Professor Karl Guntermann predicts that the Phoenix-area housing market will improve in 2011.  “Given the pattern that is emerging, it is likely declines will continue for at least the next several months.  However, with the economy gradually recovering, employment improving and the foreclosure problem apparently past its peak, odds are good 2011 will be a transition year in the Phoenix-area housing market,” Guntermann said.  Read article:
http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2011/01/26/asu-housing-market-could-rise-in-2011.html

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Phoenix Mortgage Fees Rising Again

January 26, 2011 by Chris Morrison · Leave a Comment 

Some lenders already are charging borrowers higher “loan-level price adjustments” that take effect April 1 for mortgages delivered to Fannie Mae. The fees will not affect borrowers with FICO scores above 740 and loan-to-value ratios of 75 percent or less; otherwise, though, the costs could as much as double in some cases. 

Given that home prices likely will not rise for some time, experts say buyers have time to improve their credit scores to benefit from better risk-based pricing. 

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Reports show buying cheaper than renting in most major metro areas. (Mesa #4 and Phoenix #5)

January 25, 2011 by Chris Morrison · Leave a Comment 

Here is a great article from
Christine Ricciardi. 
(Mesa #4, Phoenix

 #5

 on list of where it’s cheaper

 buy rather than rent)

It is cheaper to buy a two-bedroom home than rent one in 72% of major metropolitan areas around the U.S., according to the Truliarent vs. buy index released Monday.

The real estate data firm said increased demand for rental properties is driving the cost of homeownership down nationwide.

“Since the start of the Great Recession, many former homeowners have flooded the rental market,” said Pete Flint, chief executive and co-founder of Trulia. “Following the principles of supply and demand, renting has become relatively more expensive than buying in most markets.”

Trulia compared the median list price of a two-bedroom home with the median price paid for rent in 50 cities. The company then assigned a price-to-rent ratio to each city, with any number below 15 signifying a homebuyer’s market and any number above 21 signifying a renter’s market. Any market between those two numbers has more balanced rent versus buy costs.

The cost of homeownership includes mortgage principal and interest, closing costs, property taxes, hazard insurance and homeowner association dues. It excludes all maintenance, bills, and security costs. The cost of renting a unit includes rent and insurance.

Among the most affordable housing markets are Miami and Las Vegas, both of which have a price-to-rent ratio of 6 and where foreclosure rates have been the highest in recent years. Miami posted the highest number of foreclosures in the third quarter, according to RealtyTrac. Filings were up 9% from 2009 to about 58,600. RealtyTrac reported that Las Vegas had the highest rate of foreclosure in the third quarter, when one in every 25 housing units received a foreclosure filing.

Trulia reported that it is cheaper to buy than rent in several Texas cities, including Arlington, San Antonio and El Paso. The foreclosure rate in Texas dropped to 1.82% in the third quarter from 1.95%, according to the Texas Mortgage Bankers Association. During the third quarter, the national average home foreclosure rate was 4.39%.

buy vs. rent top 10 Reports show buying cheaper than renting in most major metro areas. (Mesa #4 and Phoenix #5)

The Trulia rent vs. buy index found that it is cheaper to rent than buy in only 8% of markets, including New York, Seattle, Kansas City, Mo.; and San Francisco. The price-to-rent ratios in these cities were 31, 24, 21, and 21, respectively.

In the remaining cities tracked by Trulia, the study found that buying may be a financially sound long-term option despite the affordability of renting in those markets.

rent vs buy top 4 and then som Reports show buying cheaper than renting in most major metro areas. (Mesa #4 and Phoenix #5)

“Oakland and Los Angeles, which are experiencing similar rates of unemployment or foreclosure filings as Phoenix, Miami and Sacramento, are still more affordable to renters,” the report said. “Moreover, close proximity to economic centers with promising job growth projections has propped up both the demand for homes and costs of home homeownership in Oakland and Los Angeles.”

For a complete list of housing markets in the order they rank in homebuyer affordability compared to renter affordability, click here.

Trulia is a San Francisco-based real estate data network with a searchable database of listed homes. The firm recently acquiredMovity, a real estate data firm that specializes in geographical reporting

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Second wave of foreclosures in Phoenix? It could be…

January 24, 2011 by Chris Morrison · Leave a Comment 

Pulled this graph today. It speaks for itself. The question is how these foreclosures will absorb into our Phoenix real estate market?

The good news is at least we are through most of the subprime borrowers.

photo.png.scaled.500 Second wave of foreclosures in Phoenix? It could be...

Chris Morrison
Morrison Residential LLC

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Americans Are on the Move, Study Shows – Growth in Phoenix!

January 21, 2011 by Chris Morrison · Leave a Comment 

More people are moving, according to Atlas Van Lines’ annual Migration Patterns study. In the 2010 U.S. Census, long-distance moves hit a record low. However, Atlas Van Lines says its recent study has shown monthly increases starting in late 2010 with the number of household who are back on the move again.

“As the economy forges ahead and the prevalence of these issues subsides, Americans are starting to move again,” says Francis Yuen, an analyst with CoStar’s Property & Portfolio Research. “The questions are: to where, and how can investors make money from it?” 

Residents of Rust Belt states, in particular, are relocating, due to high unemployment numbers that plague the region. States next to the Rust Belt, therefore, are seeing some of the largest increases in new residents. 

Here are some of the findings from the Migration Patterns study: 

▪ Washington, D.C.  for the fifth year in a row  had the highest percentage of inbound moves. Kentucky, North Carolina, and Maryland were popular states to move to. 
▪ Ohio had the highest percentage of people leaving, with Indiana also seeing an increase in people leaving the state.
▪ Phoenix, Austin, Texas, and Raleigh, N.C., are projected to have some of the strongest 2011 household growth rates. 
▪ Summer continues to be the most popular season for moving. 

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More Borrowers Face Expiring Lock-in Rates

January 17, 2011 by Chris Morrison · Leave a Comment 

Many Phoenix borrowers opt to lock in mortgage rates when buying a home or refinancing to help protect themselves against any sudden increases in interest rates while the loan is being processed. 

And with rates on the rise, lenders have reported an increase in lock-in agreements in recent weeks. However, in 2010, the average mortgage took 52.1 days to close, according to J.D. Power and Associates.
While most rate locks last from 30 to 60 days, more and more borrowers are finding their lock-in agreements are expiring before they’ve been able to make it to the closing table.
Borrowers often can arrange for an extension of their lock-in agreement, although they might have to pay extension fees.
While most mortgage brokers do not charge money to extend a lock-in agreement, some borrowers who deal directly with lenders may have to pay anywhere from 0.10 to 0.25 for a percentage point of the loan amount for a 15-week extension (e.g. $400,000 loan could mean $400-$1,000 in fees).
Irene Amato, the owner of the A.S.A.P. Mortgage Corporation in Cortlandt Manor, N.Y., told The New York Times that she suggests borrowers take out a lock-in agreement for 60 to 90 days, especially when refinancing which has faced a backlog of applications and often takes longer than a purchase mortgage.
Experts also recommend having a real estate attorney review any lock-in agreement, since the agreements can differ greatly among lenders. For example, some lenders require a borrower to have a specific property chosen before they can lock-in a rate, while others do not. Also, some lenders offer 60-day lock-in agreements without any fee, while others charge based on the size of the loan.

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Reports: Phoenix housing values improve

April 28, 2010 by Chris Morrison · Leave a Comment 

Two reports released Tuesday, one local and one national, appear to confirm that housing values are improving in the Phoenix market. Arizona State University’s Repeat Sales Index shows that although prices are lower than one year ago, the declines are not as severe as they have been.

For instance, the index shows prices dropped 9 percent from January 2009 to January 2010. That compares with a 13 percent year-over-year price drop in December 2009 and a 17 percent year-over-year price drop in November 2009.

“The March figures also show the first monthly increase in the median price of non-foreclosure homes since the end of 2007,” said ASU Professor Karl Guntermann, who is the Fred E. Taylor Professor of Real Estate. “This may signal the start of price stability throughout much of the housing market.”

The median price for single-family homes sold in January was $125,000. That compares with May 2009 when the median price slipped to $115,000, the lowest recorded during the recession.

The S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Indices also indicate that housing value declines are beginning to slow in Phoenix with a one-year composite decline hovering at 1.6 percent. That was one of the smallest declines among 20 metropolitan areas surveyed.

The largest housing value decline from February 2009 to February 2010 was 14.6 percent in Las Vegas, although Las Vegas has seen a small improvement in recent monthly returns. Other markets where prices reached new lows were Charlotte, N.C.; New York; Portland, Ore.; Seattle; and Tampa, Fla.

The only market to record price increases from January to February of this year was San Diego. Case Shiller shows Phoenix as recording a 1.5 percent composite decline from January to February and a 0.6 percent decline from December 2009 to January 2010.

Analysts at Case Shiller said all homes sales, housing starts and inventories showed “tremendous improvement” in March, as well.

The ASU Repeat Sales index indicates, however, that condo and townhouse sales are still suffering with an average price drop of 28 percent from January 2009 to January 2010. The median price was $80,000 in January but that number is expected to rise to $83,500 when the final numbers are tabulated for March of this year.

ASU recently began tabulating the repeat sales index for commercial properties. The news there isn’t good.
“At the end of 2009 commercial prices were declining at an annual rate of 40 percent,” the report stated.

The ASU-RSI is based on repeat sales, which compare the prices of a single house or now a commercial property against itself at different points in time, instead of comparing different homes with different quality factors.

Phoenix Business Journal

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